The numbers are out regarding homes sold in Deschutes County during September. Again, this month there is nothing earth shattering in the numbers. The market continues to look pretty flat after adjustment for seasonal trends.
Inventory generally peaks in July and then falls off gradually with the bottom in January or February. This year appears to be following that trend with the number of homes listed for sale in September falling to 2304 from 2396 in August. Compared to last September the number of homes for sale has fallen by 245. There are fewer homes for sale but the length of time it is expected to take to sell those homes increased slightly last month (7.2 months of inventory) from August (7 months of inventory). Less inventory is good for home sellers but don’t expect prices to jump higher any time soon. Banks are still holding back foreclosed inventory and by all accounts there is still a large number of homes headed to foreclosure.
As with inventory, the number of homes sold is falling seasonally. There were 318 homes sold in September this year compared to 389 in September 2010. Interestingly, the number of homes sold as a percentage of inventory, is exactly the same year over year (13.8%). The demand for homes is fluctuating pretty closely with the supply which would lead one to expect that prices will remain pretty much the same.
Over the last seven months the average price per square foot for homes sold in Bend have, in fact, remained pretty much the same. The price difference per square foot from March 2011 to September 2011 is only $4 for a 3.2% increase. That isn’t much of a change especially when you consider that the number of foreclosed homes sold each month over that period was falling. In March of this year there were 48 bank owned homes sold. In September there were 19 bank owned homes sold. Fewer bank owned homes on the market means less of a drag on prices which should mean that prices would go up and they did. Please don’t ask me to do the math on how much prices should have risen over that period as a result of the reduced number of bank owned homes sold. I’m not sure I would even know where to begin.
Despite the reduced number of bank owned homes for sale don’t expect prices to make a big jump higher any time soon. I have read many articles over the last couple months referring to a large shadow inventory of bank owned homes. Who knows how many of those homes are in Bend and Deschutes County but I expect foreclosed homes to continue to be a factor in the Central Oregon real estate market for at least another year or two but if prognosticators are correct it could be four more years. The good news is that, for now, prices in Bend have stabilized and I expect them to remain fairly steady through winter barring any unforeseen economic disasters.
Please feel free to contact us with any questions regarding the numbers above or your own personal real estate situation.
Home sales data courtesy of Central Oregon MLS.
Copyright BuyBendOregonHomes.com, all rights reserved.